BI vs the Fed: Two October Rate Calls Before Jakarta | W3W

Two central banks decide on interest rates in the weeks before Web3 Week Asia opens in Jakarta. Bank Indonesia's board meets on Tuesday 20 and Wednesday 21 October. The US Federal Reserve follows on Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October.

Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by a full percentage point in a single month this summer and has held it ever since. The Fed only started hiking in September. The gap between the two rates is 1.75 points, and the rupiah is the currency that gap is meant to protect.

There is one finding worth knowing before either meeting. The rupiah barely moved in the third quarter, so bitcoin's gain for Indonesian holders came almost entirely from the dollar price. The channel these meetings can change did not contribute. It is a risk that has not yet shown up.

Bank Indonesia. Board meets Tuesday 20 and Wednesday 21 October 2026. The BI-Rate is 5.75 per cent.

Federal Reserve. Meets Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October. The target range is 3.75 to 4.00 per cent.

The gap. 1.75 percentage points between the BI-Rate and the top of the Fed's range. It was 2.00 before the Fed's increase on 16 September.

Market pricing for the Fed. About 82 to 84 per cent for a hold and 16 to 18 per cent for a hike in October, as of 2 October.

The rupiah. About Rp17,870 to Rp17,880 per dollar at the close on 2 October.

Two central banks, two stances

Bank Indonesia moved first and moved fast. It raised the BI-Rate from 4.75 to 5.25 per cent on 19-20 May, to 5.50 per cent on 9 June and to 5.75 per cent on 17-18 June, a total of 100 basis points in about a month. Governor Perry Warjiyo at the time cited global turbulence, geopolitical tension and pressure on the rupiah.

It has held at 5.75 per cent at each meeting since: July, August and September. The 23 September decision was the first chaired by Destry Damayanti, who became governor at the start of the month. BI said it was balancing rupiah stability, inflation within target and growth.

The Fed was cutting as recently as late 2025. On 16 September it raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75-4.00 per cent, its first increase since 2023, on a 12 to 0 vote. Its own median projection shows 4.1 per cent at the end of 2026, which implies one more quarter-point increase before the year ends. Only two meetings remain: 27-28 October and 8-9 December.

So the two banks are not moving together. One has paused after a sharp rise. The other has just begun.

What the latest data say

In the United States, the case for an October hike weakened sharply on 2 October. Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, well below the 80,000 or more that economists expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2 per cent. July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000, with July now showing a loss of 10,000. Markets responded by cutting the chance of an October hike to roughly 16 to 18 per cent.

In Indonesia, inflation is rising toward the ceiling. Annual inflation was 3.28 per cent in September, up from 3.19 per cent in August. BI's target is 2.5 per cent, plus or minus one point, so the band tops out at 3.5 per cent. September sits 0.22 points below that line.

The rupiah is steady but not strong. By 22 September it had weakened 0.78 per cent since the end of August, to Rp17,855, according to BI. On 2 October it closed about 0.4 per cent stronger, at roughly Rp17,870 to Rp17,880. Foreign-exchange reserves stood at US$146.5 billion at the end of August, equal to 5.4 months of imports.

Bitcoin ended the quarter up roughly 40 to 43 per cent. It traded near US$86,700 on 2 October, after touching above US$87,000 earlier in the day.

The channel that matters for Indonesian crypto

Bitcoin trades in dollars. An Indonesian buyer pays in rupiah. The rupiah price is the dollar price multiplied by the exchange rate. At about US$86,700 and about Rp17,870, one bitcoin costs roughly Rp1.55 billion.

A weaker rupiah raises that number even if bitcoin does not move. A stronger rupiah lowers it. Over the third quarter the exchange rate did neither. It closed at Rp17,907 on 30 June and ended September within about 0.3 per cent of that level, depending on the source. For an Indonesian holder, bitcoin's gain was, almost entirely, a dollar gain.

That is why the October meetings matter as a risk and not as a driver. If the Fed keeps hiking while BI holds, the gap narrows and the rupiah faces more pressure. A weaker rupiah would lift the rupiah price of bitcoin, but it would also raise import costs and inflation, which pushes BI toward raising rates.

A second channel is the return on rupiah savings. BI's 100 basis points of hikes lifted the benchmark from 4.75 to 5.75 per cent. In principle that makes rupiah deposits more competitive with a non-yielding asset. The Indonesian data do not settle the question. OJK reported transaction value rising 24.2 per cent in June to Rp28.58 trillion, the month of BI's last two increases, then falling 28.2 per cent in July to Rp20.52 trillion while registered consumers rose to 22.93 million. August spot trading on CFX, one of the two licensed exchanges, then rose 16 per cent to Rp17.6 trillion. That is three months, two data sources with different definitions and no clear pattern. We found no study measuring this relationship for Indonesia.

What each outcome would do to the gap

Both hold. The gap stays at 1.75 points. The rupiah has to carry the current spread on its own.

The Fed hikes and BI holds. The Fed's range becomes 4.00-4.25 per cent and the gap narrows to 1.50 points. Markets put this at roughly 16 to 18 per cent.

BI hikes and the Fed holds. At 6.00 per cent the BI-Rate would restore a 2.00-point gap, where it stood before 16 September. There is no poll yet for the October meeting. Before the September decision, CNBC Indonesia polled 11 institutions: eight expected a hold and three expected a rise to 6.00 per cent. Some economists see a move later in the year. PermataBank's Faisal Rachman expects 6.00 per cent in the fourth quarter, Bank Danamon's Irman Faiz expects 6.25 per cent by year-end, and LPEM's Teuku Riefky calls a further increase an option at year-end or early 2027 if external conditions worsen.

Both hike. The gap stays at 1.75 points, but both rates are higher.

The honest counterweight

These are probabilities, not forecasts. Prediction markets and CME FedWatch moved by tens of points in a single week, and sources disagree on how high the October hike odds were before the jobs report. Treat the 16 to 18 per cent as a snapshot of 2 October.

A weak jobs print is not automatically good for bitcoin. Sygnum Bank's chief investment officer noted that a soft but orderly slowdown supports the liquidity trade, while a growth scare can pull risk assets lower, bitcoin included.

The September poll is stale. The eight-to-three split on BI was taken before the 23 September decision, before the 29,000 jobs print and before September inflation reached 3.28 per cent.

This article does not show that BI decisions move Indonesian crypto volume. The data above are consistent with several explanations and we did not test any of them.

What it means from Jakarta

The calendar has a useful shape. Bank Indonesia decides on 21 October. The Fed decides on 28 October, which is the early hours of 29 October in Jakarta. Web3 Week Asia opens on 11 November. Bank Indonesia's next meeting opens on 17 November, five days after the event closes, and the Fed's last meeting of the year is on 8-9 December.

That means the October rate decisions and their first market reaction will be known when Indonesia's crypto industry meets. The rate path into year-end, and what it does to the rupiah, is the open question that remains. One of the four tracks at the event is Indonesia Crypto Outlook 2026.

Web3 Week Asia 2026: Indonesia crypto event, 11-12 November

Web3 Week Asia takes place on 11-12 November 2026 in Jakarta, Indonesia. It is a two-day crypto and blockchain event covering markets, regulation, infrastructure and venture investment across Southeast Asia.

The 2025 edition drew more than 5,000 participants, over 100 speakers and more than 200 companies.

By the time the doors open, both October rate decisions will be on the record, and the next one from Bank Indonesia will be less than a week away.

Frequently asked questions

When is the next Bank Indonesia rate decision?

Bank Indonesia's board meets on 20-21 October 2026. The BI-Rate is currently 5.75 per cent, unchanged since 18 June after a 100 basis point increase between 19 May and 18 June. Its following meeting is on 17-18 November 2026.

When is the next Federal Reserve decision?

The Federal Reserve meets on 27-28 October 2026, with the decision on 28 October, which falls in the early hours of 29 October in Jakarta. The target range is 3.75 to 4.00 per cent. The last meeting of the year is on 8-9 December.

Does the Fed or Bank Indonesia affect bitcoin in Indonesia?

Indirectly. Bitcoin is priced in dollars, so the rupiah exchange rate sets the price Indonesians pay. In the third quarter the rupiah ended within about 0.3 per cent of where it started, so the dollar price drove nearly all of bitcoin's roughly 40 to 43 per cent gain. A direct effect of BI rate decisions on Indonesian crypto trading volume has not been established.

What is the gap between the BI-Rate and the Fed's rate?

1.75 percentage points between the BI-Rate of 5.75 per cent and the top of the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00 per cent range. It was 2.00 points before the Fed raised rates on 16 September 2026.

When and where is Web3 Week Asia 2026?

Sources

Bank Indonesia's schedule of monthly Board of Governors meetings for 2026: https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/sp_2730825.aspx

What changes between now and the opening day, our earlier calendar of the 40 days before Jakarta: https://www.w3w.asia/articles/web3-week-asia-2026-40-days-jakarta

BI's rate path from 4.75 to 5.75 per cent is from JawaPos and CNBC Indonesia; the 23 September decision, the rupiah level on 22 September and August inflation are from CNN Indonesia and Fortune Indonesia; Destry Damayanti taking office is from Antara and CNN Indonesia. September inflation is from BPS as reported by Antara and Media Indonesia. Rupiah closes are from Kontan and Faktual Indonesia for 30 June and from Kompas and Finansial Insight for 2 October. Reserves are from Bank Indonesia as reported by Antara. The Fed's decision and projections are from the Federal Reserve and Chase; the Fed meeting calendar is from the Federal Reserve. The September US jobs data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and CNBC. Fed hike odds are from Hokanews, Zetik and DeFi Rate, citing Kalshi, Polymarket and CME FedWatch. Bitcoin prices are from The Block and the quarterly return from Yahoo Finance, FXStreet and FinanceFeeds. Indonesian transaction data are from OJK as reported by Kompas and Antara, and from CFX as reported by Suara and Pasardana. The economists' forecasts are from Antara and CNBC Indonesia. Event details are from the official Web3 Week Asia site.

Methodology: the 1.75-point gap is the BI-Rate minus the top of the Fed's range, and the scenario gaps are calculated from it. The rupiah price of bitcoin is calculated as US$86,700 times Rp17,870 and rounded. Rupiah closes differ by source and measure, so the quarter comparison is given as a range of about 0.3 per cent. Odds for the Fed are given as a range because the sources differ and the figures change daily. The Fed decision time in Jakarta assumes the usual 2:00 pm New York release, with US daylight saving time still in effect on 28 October. The Fed's September projection of 4.1 per cent is a median, and the one-more-hike reading is a calculation from the current range. The economists' forecasts date from before the September meeting.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.